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Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market

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  • Charles L. Evans

Abstract

This article compares movements in the federal funds rate from 1987 through 1997 with predictions from the federal funds market and a Taylor rule using unemployment and core CPI data. Although a Taylor rule using revised data does about as well as the futures market predictions, the best real-time predictions would have produced forecast errors about 50 percent larger than the futures data.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Q III), pages 44-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1998:i:qiii:p:44-55:n:v.22no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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