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On the reliability of Chinese output figures

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Israel Malkin
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

Some commentators have questioned whether China?s economy slowed more in 2012 than official gross domestic product figures indicate. However, the 2012 reported output and industrial production figures are consistent both with alternative Chinese indicators of the country?s economic activity, such as electricity production, and trade volume measures reported by non-Chinese sources. These alternative domestic and foreign sources provide no evidence that China?s economic growth was slower than official data indicate.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Israel Malkin & Mark M. Spiegel, 2013. "On the reliability of Chinese output figures," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar25.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:mar25:n:2013-08
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    2. Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao & Moffitt, Robert, 2017. "Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 304-324.
    3. Qing-yuan Sui, 2019. "China’s Economic Growth and International Capital Flows," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 121-150, July.
    4. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    6. Anna Sznajderska, 2021. "Should we recalculate the level of spillover effects if the alternative GDP measures for China are correct?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(5), pages 437-456.
    7. Liu, Ping & James Hueng, C., 2017. "Measuring real business condition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-274.
    8. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Camacho, Maximo & Dal Bianco, Marcos & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Toward a more reliable picture of the economic activity: An application to Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 129-132.
    10. Zhang, Jin & Li, Pujiang & Zhao, Guochang, 2018. "Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 211-216.

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