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Do initial claims overstate layoffs?

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Abstract

Initial claims for unemployment insurance averaged a stubbornly high 468,000 in the year ending December 2010, but have recently come down quickly. Many analysts interpret this as a sign that layoffs were too high to support a strong labor market recovery during most of 2010. However, claims data may have exaggerated layoffs in 2010 because the fraction of unemployed workers applying for benefits was higher than before the recession. If the proportion of eligible workers who applied were held constant, 2010 claims would have averaged roughly 20% less than the actual reading.

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  • Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2011. "Do initial claims overstate layoffs?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb7.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb7:n:2011-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Pawel Krolikowski, 2020. "Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(21), pages 1-6, August.
    2. Ayşegül Şahin & Murat Tasci, 2020. "The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(09), May.

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