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Predicting crises, part I: Do coming crises cast their shadows before?

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  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

The enormity of the current financial collapse, widely described as a bursting bubble, raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted, possibly permitting action to offset its effects. In the first of two Economic Letters on the subject, we look at developments in the United States and find evidence suggesting that simple indicators based on asset market developments can provide early warnings about potentially dangerous financial imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Predicting crises, part I: Do coming crises cast their shadows before?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep21.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:sep21:n:2009-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Landais, Bernard, 2011. "Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise [Management and Efficiency of the Economic Policies : The Crisis' Lessons"]," MPRA Paper 31223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Landais, Bernard, 2010. "The monetary origins of the financial and economic crisis," MPRA Paper 23769, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Financial crises;

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