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On forecasting future monetary policy: has forward-looking language mattered?

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  • Simon H. Kwan

Abstract

This Economic Letter reviews the changes in the content of the FOMC statements over the past several years and examines how the accuracy of market forecasts of monetary policy has evolved. The analysis complements prior research showing that, as the FOMC took steps to foster greater transparency, the accuracy of the fed funds futures market in predicting future fed funds rates has improved. In recent years, the level of precision improved further as forward-looking language was included in the FOMC statements.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon H. Kwan, 2007. "On forecasting future monetary policy: has forward-looking language mattered?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun15.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2007:i:jun15:n:2007-15
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2007/el2007-15.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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