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The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil

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Cash transfers are important fiscal policy tools for both advanced and developing countries. A study of one of the world’s largest cash transfer programs—Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—highlights the potentially large, positive, and persistent effects on the regional economy. Estimates using 2004-2019 data show that Brazilian states receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grew at least 2 percentage points faster in the first year. The transfers generate substantial increases in regional formal and informal employment. These effects are larger than those documented in advanced countries like the United States.

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  • Leo Feler & Arthur Mendes & Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Steven Pennings, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(24), pages 1-5, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:98818
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    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/09/macroeconomic-impact-of-cash-transfers-in-brazil/
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