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Breakeven Employment Growth

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Abstract

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Stephanie Stewart, 2024. "Breakeven Employment Growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(18), pages 1-5, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:98518
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