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How Far Is Labor Force Participation from Its Trend?

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Abstract

Labor force participation in the United States has dropped a percentage point since the pandemic began. Analyzing how participation has evolved for various groups of the population suggests that more than two-thirds of this decline has been due to persistent “trend” factors. The remainder is due to temporary economic conditions, or “cyclical” factors. Estimates project that trend factors—driven largely by population aging—could push labor participation down an additional percentage point over the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Brigid C. Meisenbacher & David Ramachandran, 2023. "How Far Is Labor Force Participation from Its Trend?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(20), pages 1-5, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96560
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    1. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Annemarie Schweinert, 2018. "The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leila Bengali & Evgeniya A. Duzhak & Cindy Zhao, 2023. "Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(06), pages 1-6, October.

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