IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/94546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

The Japanese government’s strong response to the economic fallout from COVID-19 presents an opportunity to examine whether expansionary fiscal policies raise long-term inflation expectations. Analyzing market-based estimates of long-term inflation expectations in Japan shows that announcements of government fiscal stimulus under COVID-19 had no meaningful impact on investors’ long-term inflation expectations. This illustrates the challenge of moving long-term expectations after they become anchored below a central bank’s inflation target, as they have been in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2022. "COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(20), pages 1-5, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-20.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    2. Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2018. "Fiscal policy interventions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 297-314.
    3. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Fleischhacker, Jan, 2024. "Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules," MPRA Paper 122497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2019. "New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 152-169, January.
    5. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2022. "The electoral fiscal multiplier," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 938-945.
    6. Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2020. "Fiscal Rule in Africa," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 112-120, January.
    7. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    8. Viet Hoang Dinh & Didier Nibbering & Benjamin Wong, 2023. "Random Subspace Local Projections," CAMA Working Papers 2023-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    10. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    11. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    12. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Fiscal stimulus and systematic monetary policy: Postwar evidence for the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-96.
    13. Michael Pedersen, 2020. "Surveying the survey: What can we learn about the effects of monetary policy on inflation expectations?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 889, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Edward P. Herbst & Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2020. "Bias in Local Projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-010r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Jan 2021.
    15. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Benjamin Born & Francesco D’Ascanio & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2024. "Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1642-1683.
    17. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2022. "Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. N. A. Karlova & E. V. Puzanova & I. V. Bogacheva & A. G. Morozov, 2020. "How Are Inflation Expectations of Enterprises Formed: Survey Results," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 522-532, September.
    21. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.