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Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed?

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  • Daniel J. Wilson

Abstract

Consumer spending and business operations across the United States have been highly dependent on local conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Current economic forecasts therefore must incorporate projections for where the pandemic is headed. A new econometric model provides county-level and national forecasts of COVID-19 infections. Estimates from the model indicate that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in new cases. This factor should continue to exert strong downward pressure on new cases in the weeks ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J. Wilson, 2021. "Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(11), pages 01-06, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:90829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel J. Wilson, 2019. "Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and Their Asset Price Responses," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 373-388, December.
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