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Modeling Financial Crises

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  • Pascal Paul

Abstract

Research has revealed several facts about financial crises based on historical data. Crises are rare events that are associated with severe recessions that are typically deeper than normal recessions. They are usually preceded by a buildup of system imbalances, particularly a rapid increase of credit. Financial crises tend to occur after prolonged booms but do not necessarily result from large shocks. Recent work shows a novel way to replicate these facts in a standard macroeconomic model, which policymakers could use to gain insights to prevent future crises.

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  • Pascal Paul, 2019. "Modeling Financial Crises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    2. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Gabriel Chodorow‐Reich & Antonio Falato, 2022. "The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 85-128, February.
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