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How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?

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Abstract

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a very low level at the end of 2016, raising the question of whether the labor market has become too tight. After applying a new method to adjust for demographic changes in the labor force, the current unemployment rate is still 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point higher than at past labor market peaks. This indicates that the labor market may not be quite as tight as the headline unemployment rate suggests.

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  • Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2017. "How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00122
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    1. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2018. "On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 219-231, May.
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    1. Lael Brainard, 2017. "Why Opportunity and Inclusion Matter to America’s Economic Strength : a speech at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, May 2," Speech 953, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the \"Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals\" 59th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, C," Speech 971, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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