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Fed Communication: Words and Numbers

Author

Listed:
  • Fernanda Nechio
  • Rebecca Regan

Abstract

In response to the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve relied more heavily on communication to shape expectations. Since 2012 the Fed has released the Summary of Economic Projections reflecting the range of expectations from FOMC meeting participants. Policymakers also deliver speeches to further clarify their views. Using textual analysis to quantify the content of those speeches reveals a somewhat diverse set of views among policymakers. Regardless of the broad range of views, there is a positive relationship between the content of the centermost speech and the median projection for the policy rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernanda Nechio & Rebecca Regan, 2016. "Fed Communication: Words and Numbers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00104
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stefano Nardelli & David Martens & Ellen Tobback, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring Central Bank Communication," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Big Data, volume 44, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Paweł Baranowski & Hamza Bennani & Wirginia Doryń, 2020. "Do ECB introductory statements help to predict monetary policy: evidence from tone analysis," NBP Working Papers 323, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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