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Assessing expectations of monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Simon H. Kwan

Abstract

An ongoing concern has been that the public might misconstrue the Fed?s forward guidance about future monetary policy and underappreciate the extent to which short-term interest rates may vary with future news about the economy. Evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants. The public also may be less uncertain about these forecasts than policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon H. Kwan, 2014. "Assessing expectations of monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00028
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alvin Andhika Zulen & Okiriza Wibisono, 2019. "Measuring stakeholders’ expectations for the central bank’s policy rate," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Michelle Bongard & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2021. "Connecting the dots: Market reactions to forecasts of policy rates and forward guidance provided by the Fed," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 684-706, January.
    3. Michelle Bongard & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2021. "Connecting the dots: Market reactions to forecasts of policy rates and forward guidance provided by the Fed," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 684-706, January.
    4. Alvin Andhika Zulen & Okiriza Wibisono, 2019. "Measuring stakeholders’ expectation on central bank’s policy rate," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Riccardo Rebonato, 2017. "Affine Models With Stochastic Market Price Of Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-38, June.
    6. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    7. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.

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