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Private credit and public debt in financial crises

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Abstract

Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government?s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government?s budget, sometimes triggering attacks on public debt. Historical analysis shows that a private credit boom raises the odds of a financial crisis. Entering such a crisis with a swollen public debt may limit the government?s ability to respond and can result in a considerably slower recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Private credit and public debt in financial crises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00009
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2016/104, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    4. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli & Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe, 2019. "Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding Out Effect for Public Investment in the EU?," Working Papers 36, European Stability Mechanism.
    7. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yuan, Gecheng & Fang, Jie & Sun, Yongping, 2024. "The impact of Fintech on the nexus between household debt and financial crises: A global perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    11. Liew Chung-Yee & Normaz Wana Ismail & Tan Ai-Lian, 2020. "Is Public Debt Asymmetrically Link to Financial Development in Malaysia?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 97-110, March.

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