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The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 1: the basic model

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  • Gregory W. Huffman
  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

The Internal Revenue Service remains unpopular, the U.S. savings rate remains low, and pressure to efficiently raise significant new tax revenues seems certain to grow once the baby boom generation reaches retirement age. Consequently, it is likely that alternatives to the current income tax system will receive substantial political and media attention in coming years. In this first of two articles on the economic impact of fundamental tax reform, Evan Koenig and Gregory Huffman describe a framework for analyzing how the adoption of a flat-rate consumption tax would affect the economy over time. Their analysis indicates that replacing the income tax with a consumption tax would have an immediate positive impact on saving and lead, in the long run, to higher levels of consumption, wages, and stock prices and to lower interest rates. In the short run, however, interest rates would probably rise, and consumption and stock prices would probably decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory W. Huffman & Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 1: the basic model," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 24-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1998:i:q1:p:24-37
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    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/er/1998/er9801c.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert K. Triest, 1996. "Fundamental tax refund," Regional Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Spr, pages 25-26.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory W. Huffman & Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 2 : extensions," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 1-1.
    2. Alan D. Viard, 2001. "The transition to consumption taxation, Part 2: the impact on existing financial assets," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 20-31.
    3. Alan D. Viard, 2000. "The transition to consumption taxation, part 1: the impact on existing capital," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q3, pages 2-22.

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      Keywords

      Taxation;

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