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Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict?

Author

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  • Jian Wang

Abstract

A quarter-century quest hasn't found the elusive links between economic fundamentals and currency values. ; The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001-02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the Canadian dollar and 30 percent against the British pound .

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Wang, 2008. "Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict?," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(jun).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddel:y:2008:i:jun:n:v.3no.6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Mueller-Kademann, 2016. "The puzzle that just isn't," Papers 1604.08895, arXiv.org.
    2. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    4. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    5. Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

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