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Productivity and the term structure

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

The recent record-setting economic expansion and the accompanying record-setting bull market in stocks are often attributed to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and increased productivity. But if interest rates behave differently when productivity changes, interest rate policy may need to change as well. This article examines how productivity changes affect the entire term structure-from short-term interest rates like the federal funds rate, to long-term rates like mortgages, car loans, and corporate bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich, 2000. "Productivity and the term structure," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2000:i:qiv:p:2-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benveniste, L M & Scheinkman, J A, 1979. "On the Differentiability of the Value Function in Dynamic Models of Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 727-732, May.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    3. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 241-275.
    4. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611.
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