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Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: trend inflation isn't constant

Author

Listed:
  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

Monetary policymakers look to the Phillips curve?an expression of the relationship between inflation and the degree to which the economy is operating relative to its potential?for information about the cost of actions undertaken to lower inflation. Recent estimations of the curve suggest it is deviating from historical norms. We argue that changes in trend inflation and Fed operating procedures are not being taken into account in these estimations and that when they are, changes in the curve are minor and need not concern policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2008. "Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: trend inflation isn't constant," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jan.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2008:i:jan
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Pham & James Riedel, 2013. "Expectations and the cost of disinflation in Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 86-97.
    2. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Phillips curve;

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