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Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: the Great Moderation and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

Observations that the Phillips curve may be deviating from historical norms are important to policymakers because deviations would imply that more or less output has to be sacrificed to achieve a permanent reduction in long-term inflation. But we argue that recent economic shocks and a shift in the Fed?s response to inflation may be leading economists to misestimate the curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2008. "Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: the Great Moderation and monetary policy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Feb.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2008:i:feb
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Soldatos Gerasimos T., 2016. "The Laffer Curve, Efficiency, and Tax Policy: A Note," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(3), pages 255-262, December.
    4. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    5. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    6. Thi Pham & James Riedel, 2013. "Expectations and the cost of disinflation in Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 86-97.
    7. Binder, Carola, 2019. "Inequality and the inflation tax," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.

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