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FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Carlson
  • Ben R. Craig
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • William R. Melick

Abstract

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee?s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public?s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & Patrick C. Higgins & William R. Melick, 2006. "FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:jun
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    3. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC communication policy and the accuracy of Fed Funds futures," Staff Reports 491, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    6. Michael Chiu, 2012. "Derivatives markets, products and participants: an overview," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the workshop "Data requirements for monitoring derivative transactions", organised by the People's Bank of China and the Irving Fisher , volume 35, pages 3-11, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    8. Alissa G. Karl, 2013. "‘Bank Talk,’ Performativity And Financial Markets," Journal of Cultural Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 63-77, February.
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2015. "The nature and impact of the market forecasting errors in the Federal funds futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-192.
    10. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Clemens Kool & Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency and the Crowding Out of Private Information in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 765-774, June.
    13. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    16. Yasuo Nishiyama, 2017. "Open market operations and associated movements of the federal funds rate during the week prior to target changes," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 806-828, October.

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