IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/y2001ioct1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How well does the federal funds futures rate predict the future federal funds rate?

Author

Abstract

Contrary to popular belief, federal funds futures rates do not tell us precisely where the market thinks federal funds rates will be in the future. On average, futures rates overpredict future fed funds rates, and, depending on whether fed funds rates are falling or rising, the futures rate may consistently overestimate or underestimate the future fed funds rates. To obtain a reliable estimate of the future fed funds rate, one must adjust the fed funds futures rate appropriately to account for the bias and past movements of the fed funds rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ed Nosal, 2001. "How well does the federal funds futures rate predict the future federal funds rate?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2001:i:oct1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/4515/item/627749
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December.
    3. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1203-1242, December.
    4. Rodrigo Calcagni T., 2020. "Implied monetary policy extracted from interest rate swaps in Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 3-27, October.
    5. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal funds rate;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2001:i:oct1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.