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Are successful interventions random events?

Author

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  • Owen F. Humpage

Abstract

An examination of the Federal Reserve's intervention successes in the late 1980s, showing that, although the characteristic day-to-day fluctuations in exchange rates virtually ensured that a large share of these interventions would appear successful--purely by chance and even in the absence of a causal link--the number of successes proved larger than pure randomness would suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "Are successful interventions random events?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:1996:i:mar1
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 2003/095, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, April.

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