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An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting

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Abstract

The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure?s predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices.

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  • Mark Bognanni & Tristan Young, 2018. "An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2018(05), pages 1-6, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00089
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201805
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    Cited by:

    1. José Francisco Lima & Fernanda Catarina Pereira & Arminda Manuela Gonçalves & Marco Costa, 2023. "Bootstrapping State-Space Models: Distribution-Free Estimation in View of Prediction and Forecasting," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, December.

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