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Which Estimates of Metropolitan-Area Jobs Growth Should We Trust?

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  • Joel Elvery
  • Christopher Vecchio

Abstract

The earliest available source of metro-area employment numbers is the initial estimates of State and Metro-Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings (SAE) from the Current Employment Statistics program, but these figures are subject to large revisions. We show how large those revisions are for six metro areas and the four states in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. We also compare the precision of the initial estimates to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is less timely but more accurate. Our analysis confirms that the best approach for those wanting accurate metro-area employment figures is to use the final, benchmarked SAE or the QCEW.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Elvery & Christopher Vecchio, 2014. "Which Estimates of Metropolitan-Area Jobs Growth Should We Trust?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00008
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201405
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