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Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation?

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  • Mehmet Pasaogullari
  • Patricia Waiwood

Abstract

Some analysts pay particular attention to oil prices, thinking they might give an advance signal of changes in inflation. However, using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year, although they do help to explain short-term movements in the CPI.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Pasaogullari & Patricia Waiwood, 2014. "Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Feb..
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00004
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201401
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