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In Optimism We Trust? Explaining the Disconnect between Post-Election Optimism and Own-Firm Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Brent Meyer
  • Daniel J. Weitz

Abstract

We randomly split the CFO survey panel into two separate surveys around the 2024 US elections to discern whether the results of the elections had any impact on financial decision makers' expectations. Respondents to the post-election survey reported sharply higher optimism about the US economy and an improved macroeconomic outlook relative to the pre-election responses. In contrast, own-firm optimism and revenue growth expectations were not meaningfully changed between the two surveys. Among many possible reasons for this disconnect, we highlight the expected impact of the new administration's policies and attendant uncertainty related to these policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Meyer & Daniel J. Weitz, 2025. "In Optimism We Trust? Explaining the Disconnect between Post-Election Optimism and Own-Firm Expectations," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2025(2), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:a00068:99644
    DOI: 10.29338/ph2025-02
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business survey; economic growth; optimism; policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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