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Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run?

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • M. Melinda Pitts
  • David Wiczer

Abstract

The labor market has exhibited solid growth in the past few years, largely due to the strong growth in three industries: Health Care and Social Assistance (HCSA), Leisure and Hospitality (LH), and Government (G). However, while the level of payroll employment surpassed prepandemic levels, a gap of approximately 3.4 million remains between these levels and the level of employment that would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Using data on vacancies and vacancy yields, we estimate that HCSA and G are quickly approaching their prepandemic trend trajectories. LH, however, is not on track to catch up anytime soon. These results suggest that growth in the labor market, and support from these key industries, may be slowing but should continue to be solid in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick C. Higgins & M. Melinda Pitts & David Wiczer, 2024. "Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run?," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2024(8), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:a00068:99049
    DOI: 10.29338/ph2024-08
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trend employment; industry employment; labor market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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