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Impactos macroeconômicos do choque fiscal de 2015: A regularização de despesas públicas não contabilizadas

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  • Cavalcanti, Marco A. F. H.
  • Vereda, Luciano
  • Zanderer, Rafael
  • Rabelo, Matheus

Abstract

O trabalho analisa os impactos macroeconômicos da explicitação e regularização, ao longo de 2015, de despesas públicas não contabilizadas no passado, a partir de um modelo DSGE adequado ao caso brasileiro com setor público detalhado. A gradual explicitação da existência e magnitude desses passivos fiscais configurou uma série de “choques informacionais” para os agentes privados. Resultados de simulação indicam que esses choques - e o ajuste fiscal implementado para contrabalançá-los - teriam gerado efeitos macroeconômicos relevantes, com queda do produto e aumento da inflação, e que a protelação do ajuste - ou a adoção de um ajuste mais “brando” no curto prazo - teriam prejudicado ainda mais o desempenho econômico.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalcanti, Marco A. F. H. & Vereda, Luciano & Zanderer, Rafael & Rabelo, Matheus, 2019. "Impactos macroeconômicos do choque fiscal de 2015: A regularização de despesas públicas não contabilizadas," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 73(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:73:y:2019:i:4:a:73948
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