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Choques Antecipados de Política Monetária, Forward Guidance e Políticas Macroeconômicas de Estabilização

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  • Ramos, Pedro Lutz
  • Portugal, Marcelo Savino

Abstract

O artigo avalia os efeitos do uso de Forward Guidance por parte do Banco Central do Brasil com modelos DSGE. Comparamos o efeito de uma elevação na taxa de juros previamente anunciada e crível (Forward Guidance), contra uma mesma trajetória na qual os agentes privados não acreditam que o plano ocorrerá. O resultado mostra que o choque na taxa de juros anunciado e crível aumenta substancialmente a potência da política monetária sobre a inflação e sobre o produto, mostrando que a trajetória esperada da taxa de juros pelos agentes é muito importante para condução de política monetária.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos, Pedro Lutz & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2019. "Choques Antecipados de Política Monetária, Forward Guidance e Políticas Macroeconômicas de Estabilização," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 73(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:73:y:2019:i:2:a:57119
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