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A Taxa De Juros Natural E A Regra De Taylor No Brasil: 2003/2015

Author

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  • Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda
  • Camêlo, Felipe Diogo
  • João, Igor Custodio

Abstract

Este trabalho estima a taxa de juros natural e a Regra de Taylor para o Brasil no período 2003/2015. A taxa de juros natural de uma economia aberta pequena é igual a taxa de juros internacional adicionada aos prêmios de risco, do país e do câmbio. Este arcabouço permite analisar os componentes que determinam a elevada taxa de juros do mercado interbancário brasileiro. A taxa natural variou ao longo do tempo e é usada na estimação da Regra de Taylor. Foram utilizadas variáveis do tipo 'dummy' para testar a hipótese de mudança no comportamento do Banco Central à taxa de inflação, ao hiato de produto e ao câmbio no Governo Dilma. A evidência empírica não rejeita a hipótese de que os coeficientes dos hiatos da inflação e do produto, da Regra de Taylor, mudaram no Governo Dilma.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda & Camêlo, Felipe Diogo & João, Igor Custodio, 2016. "A Taxa De Juros Natural E A Regra De Taylor No Brasil: 2003/2015," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:70:y:2016:i:4:a:60542
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    Cited by:

    1. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    2. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Jose Luis Oreiro, 2024. "Class Coalition and the Political Economy of New Developmentalism: an essay in honour of Bresser-Pereira," Working Papers PKWP2411, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Fernando Marques Mansilla & Elano Ferreira Arruda & Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira, 2024. "A Note on the Nonlinearities of Brazilian Monetary Policy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(5), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Anjos, Daniel & Moreira, Ricardo, 2023. "Fiscal Rules and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Estimates for a Large Emerging Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 76(4), March.
    6. Weider Loureto Alves & Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira, 2023. "Phillips curve and the exchange rate pass-through: a time–frequency approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2165-2181, May.

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