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Medindo a fidelidade das torcidas brasileiras: uma análise econômica no futebol

Author

Listed:
  • Giovannetti, Bruno
  • Rocha, Bruno de Paula
  • Sanches, Fábio Miessi
  • da Silva, José Carlos Domingos

Abstract

Este trabalho modela o comportamento de torcidas do futebol profissional brasileiro no que se refere à presença nos estádios. A partir daí, busca testar a fidelidade das mesmas no campeonato brasileiro de 2004. Para isso estima, para os grandes times nacionais, quais foram as torcidas cujo número de torcedores presentes nos jogos pode ser explicado pela expectativa da torcida com relação ao resultado do jogo. Assim, dois passos são seguidos, ambos baseados no nacional de 2004: o primeiro procura estimar, jogo a jogo, um vetor de probabilidade de vitória, empate e derrota do time, através de um Logit Ordenado; o segundo busca estimar, torcida a torcida, quais têm a presença nos estádios determinada pela expectativa percebida com relação ao resultado do jogo. Para tal campeonato, apenas 3 torcidas aparecem como infiéis, quais sejam, dos clubes Atlético Mineiro, Grêmio e Internacional de Porto Alegre.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovannetti, Bruno & Rocha, Bruno de Paula & Sanches, Fábio Miessi & da Silva, José Carlos Domingos, 2006. "Medindo a fidelidade das torcidas brasileiras: uma análise econômica no futebol," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(4), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:60:y:2006:i:4:a:955
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