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A Hipótese das Expectativas na Estrutura a Termo de Juros no Brasil: Uma Aplicação de Modelos de Valor Presente

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  • Lima, Alexandre Maia Correia
  • Issler, João Victor

Abstract

Utilizando dados financeiros brasileiros da BM&F, testa-se a validade do modelo de valor presente na estrutura a termo de juros, também conhecido na literatura como Hipótese das Expectativas. Estes modelos relacionam a taxa de juros de longo prazo à uma média das taxas de juros de curto-prazo mais um prêmio de risco, invariante no tempo. Associada a estes modelos está a questão da previsibilidade dos retornos de ativos financeiros ou, mais especificamente, à previsibilidade na evolução das taxas de juros. Neste artigo é realizada uma análise multivariada num arcabouço de séries temporais utilizando a técnica de Auto-Regressão Vetorial. Os resultados empíricos aceitam apenas parcialmente a Hipótese das Expectativas para a estrutura a termo de juros brasileira.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lima, Alexandre Maia Correia & Issler, João Victor, 2003. "A Hipótese das Expectativas na Estrutura a Termo de Juros no Brasil: Uma Aplicação de Modelos de Valor Presente," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(4), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:57:y:2003:i:4:a:862
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    Cited by:

    1. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
    2. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Cortez, Willy Walter & Islas C., Alejandro, 2012. "Mexico: what is the impact of monetary policy on unemployment rates?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    5. Caldas M., Gabriel, 2012. "Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. García-Herrero, Alicia & Girardin, Eric & dos Santos, Enestor, 2017. "Do as I do, and also as I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123395, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2011. "Characterizing The Brazilian Termstructure Of Interest Rates In A Cointegrated Var Model," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change," Textos para discussão 175, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    9. Moreira, Tito Belchior S., 2011. "Brazil: an empirical study on fiscal policy transmission," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

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