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Previsão da volatilidade no mercado interbancário de câmbio

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  • Goulart, Clayton Peixoto
  • Amaral, Hudson Fernandes
  • Bertucci, Luiz Alberto
  • Bressan, Aureliano Angel

Abstract

This paper presents a comparative study of the predictive capacity of the models EWMA, GARCH (1,1) EGARCH (1,1) and TARCH (1,1) when applied to forecast the volatility of the exchange rates in the Brazilian inter-bank market. The sample consists of the daily closing quotations of the exchange rate real/US dollar obtained in the period from August 20, 2001 to September 30, 2003. The results showed that the TARCH (1,1) model, provided the most accurate forecast performance for this period, followed closely by the EGARCH (1,1) model, then the GARCH (1,1) model, and finally the EWMA model. There was also evidence that all the models revealed a tendency to overestimate the future volatility. It was confirmed as well that the Brazilian Exchange Clearinghouse operates in an extremely traditional and subjective way concerning the definition of the exchange rate variation indexes guaranteed under contract and, consequently, in collateral requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Goulart, Clayton Peixoto & Amaral, Hudson Fernandes & Bertucci, Luiz Alberto & Bressan, Aureliano Angel, 2005. "Previsão da volatilidade no mercado interbancário de câmbio," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 45(0), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eaerae:v:45:y:2005:i:0:a:37336
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    1. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.

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