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China¡¯s Growth Deceleration: Causes and Future Growth Prospect

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Yifu Lin

    (Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract

China¡¯s growth decelerated substantially after 2010. This paper argues that the main cause for the deceleration is external and cyclical, China has a potential growth rate of 8%, the economy has good investment opportunities and resources, and China is likely to achieve a medium-high growth rate of around 6.5% in the coming years. The paper also examines the various structural reforms that can help China to release its growth potential and complete the transition to a well-functioning market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Yifu Lin, 2019. "China¡¯s Growth Deceleration: Causes and Future Growth Prospect," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(1), pages 26-52, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fec:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:26-52
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    File URL: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-008-019-0003-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "Regional resilience in China: The response of the provinces to the growth slowdown," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; economic growth deceleration; causes; countermeasures; external factors; cyclical factors; structural reforms; growth potential; well- functioning; market econmy; hig-growth rate; medium-high growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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