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Uncovering Publication Bias in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Hlavacek

    (Charles University, Prague)

  • Ilgar Ismayilov

    (Charles University, Prague, Azerbaijan State Economic University (UNEC), Baku)

Abstract

Our study provides an integrated overview of fiscal multiplier estimates, a key parameter assessing the economy’s response to government interventions. Using a comprehensive database comprising 131 studies and over 3200 observations, we employ both linear and non- linear meta-analysis methods. Notably, our study marks the first application of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in the context of meta-analysis for fiscal multipliers. Our results reveal a positive but moderate fiscal multiplier effect, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 across different models. Significantly, our findings diverge from prior research by identifying a publication selection bias, largely attributed to our innovative use of BMA for heterogeneity investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Hlavacek & Ilgar Ismayilov, 2024. "Uncovering Publication Bias in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 74(4), pages 392-431, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:74:y:2024:i:4:p:392-431
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    File URL: https://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1540
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; meta-analysis; publication bias; model uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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