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Evaluation of Tax-Revenue Forecasts in the Czech Republic (in Czech)

Author

Listed:
  • Jiøí Špalek

    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Dalibor Moravanský

    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The article analyzes macroeconomic forecasts of tax revenue in the Czech Republic. Forecasts are tested for their biases on data from Czech Republic from 1993 to 2003. The authors argue that Czech tax-revenue forecasts were highly biased and the hypothesis of unbiasedness could not be rejected for most of Czech taxation, excluding consumption taxes. The best-forecast quality concerned consumption taxes (VAT and excise), where the bias was about 6–7 percent. There was significant improvement in the forecast quality for personal-income tax, though little improvement elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiøí Špalek & Dalibor Moravanský, 2005. "Evaluation of Tax-Revenue Forecasts in the Czech Republic (in Czech)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(3-4), pages 162-187, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:3-4:p:162-187
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    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1014_s_162_187.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public finance; tax revenues; revenue forecast; national budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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