Agriculture and the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis with Special Reference to India

This paper deals with the impact of Covid-19 on the agricultural sector. The analysis is organised at the global level, but it has a specific focus on India. First, it reviews the overall food supply situation in the world and India to assess the possibilities of food crises. The paper finds that while the food situation in April and May 2020 appeared comfortable, there were likely to be widespread food shortages in countries dependent on food imports if the pandemic was prolonged. This was particularly so if food exporting countries turned precautionary and restricted exports. In the case of many animal products, the paper finds that the drastic reduction in supplies created shortages in both the developed world and countries like India in April and May 2020. Secondly, it reviews the disruptions in food supply chains induced by the pandemic. International trade in agricultural goods shrank during the lockdown as imports fell and ports remained closed. Detailed data across more than 2000 markets in India are analysed to understand the fall in daily market arrivals for 16 crops between March 15 and May 31 over 2019 and 2020. The number of reporting markets fell in this period. Of the 16 crops analysed, it was only in paddy, lentil, tomato and banana that market arrivals in 2020 constituted more than 75 per cent of market arrivals in 2019. Thirdly, analysis of prices indicates that global price indices for food, dairy and meat fell in April and May 2020. For India, we do not find an across the board rise in either wholesale or retail prices of agricultural goods during the lockdown. The fall in wholesale price indices for cereals, vegetables, eggs and poultry chicken was indicative of low price realisation for the farmers. At the same time, the rise in urban CPI for cereals, vegetables, and egg, particularly in April 2020, was indicative of tightening supply chains in these commodities. Finally, the Covid-19 pandemic made the world recognise and appreciate the value of migrant labour. After the lockdown began, the mobility of migrant workers was severely restricted and large numbers of migrant workers returned home. Agriculture was acutely affected; farms across the world suffered from the impacts of labour shortages.