Linee evolutive nell'industria delle telecomunicazioni

Linee evolutive nell'industria delle telecomunicazioni (di Paola Garrone, Sergio Mariotti) - The ecology of the telecommunication (Tlc) services industry is rapidly and deeply changing. The traditionally integrated filiere of Tlc networks and services has been disrupted by the joint action of technological change and liberalisation, and the resulting galaxy of activities is populated by a variety of firm types (incumbents, start-ups, new entrants from other countries and sectors). This paper means to analyse: 1) how the Tlc operators that are currently populating the market are likely to fit the new environment; 2) how the market structure is likely to evolve in the medium-term. Different conceptual models are summoned to formulate a prediction on the fate of Tlc industry. First, productivity gains can be reaped by firms through specialization (or multi-divisional organisation) and cross-border growth paths. Second, selected interdependent activities (e.g. Internet Service Provision and content) can necessitate, for an effective co-ordination, non-market relations. Third, competition in the retail market can be inhibited either by market power of the established firms or by path-dependent processes in the adoption of new services. A number of stylised facts seems to depict the European Tlc industry as evolving towards a two-layer industry structure. The up-stream markets are likely to result in an international oligopoly of specializzed firms (and, temporarily, of subsidiaries of multidivisional groups). The retail markets are likely to be dominated by integrator who supply bundles of services and are integrated upstream towards selected activities such as access networks or portals.