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İleri̇ye Dönük Yeni̇ Keynesyen Para Poli̇ti̇kasi Reaksi̇yon Fonksi̇yonunun Tahmi̇ni̇: Taylor Kurali’Nin, Mccallum Kurali’Nin, Taylor-Mccallum Melez Kurali’Nin Türki̇ye Ekonomi̇si̇nde Geçerli̇li̇ği̇

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Naim ARDOR

    (Gazi University)

  • Serdar VARLIK

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Yeni Keynesyen para politikası kurallarının Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisi döneminde geçerliliğini incelediğimiz bu çalışmada, ileriye dönük Taylor Kuralı, McCallum Kuralı ve Taylor-McCallum Melez Kuralı Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi’yle (GMM) tahmin edilmektedir. Ekonometrik sonuçlar ileriye dönük Taylor Kuralı’nın Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) para politikasının operasyonel çerçevesiyle uyumlu olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca TCMB politika faiz oranını kademeli bir yaklaşımla belirlemekte ve politika faiz oranındaki büyük dalgalanmaları önlemek için çaba göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla TCMB para politikasını fiyat istikrarına odaklanarak yürütürken, finansal istikrarı da göz önünde bulundurmaktadır. Farklı bir ifade ile TCMB için finansal istikrar, fiyat istikrarını destekleyen bir amaç olarak görülmektedir. Buna karşın, çalışmada McCallum Kuralı’nın ve Taylor-McCallum Melez Kuralı’nın 2002-2012 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde geçerlili olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Naim ARDOR & Serdar VARLIK, 2013. "İleri̇ye Dönük Yeni̇ Keynesyen Para Poli̇ti̇kasi Reaksi̇yon Fonksi̇yonunun Tahmi̇ni̇: Taylor Kurali’Nin, Mccallum Kurali’Nin, Taylor-Mccallum Melez Kurali’Nin Türki̇ye Ekonomi̇si̇nde Geçerli̇li̇ği̇," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 24(89), pages 45-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:24:y:2013:i:89:p:45-71
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.35302
    Note: [English Title] Estimation of New Keynesian Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Availability of Taylor Rule, McCallum Rule and Hybrid Taylor-McCallum Rule in Turkish Economy [English Abstract] In this study which we investigate the availability of New Keynesian monetary policy rules in the period of inflation targeting strategy, forward looking Taylor Rule, McCallum Rule and Taylor-McCallum Hybrid Rule are estimated by using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Econometric results indicate that forward looking Taylor Rule corresponds to operational framework of monetary policy of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT). CBRT determines the policy interest rate by gradual approach and endeavors to prevent big fluctuations in policy rate. Thereby while CBRT carries out monetary policy by focusing on price stability, it considers financial stability. In other words, financial stability is seen as a sustaining aim for TCMB. Notwithstanding the fact that we came through the unavailability of forward looking McCallum and Hybrid Taylor-McCallum Rule in the period of 2002-2012 at Turkish economy. [English Keywords] Monetary policy rules, GMM.
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    Keywords

    Para politikası kuralları; GMM;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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