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Türkiye’nin Yakıt Tüketiminde Biyo-dizel Kullanım Hedeflerinin Etki Analizi

Author

Listed:
  • Selim ÇAĞATAY

    (Akdeniz University)

  • Celal TAŞDOĞAN

    (Gazi University)

  • Reyhan ÖZEŞ

    (Akdeniz University)

Abstract

Türkiye Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurulu motorin türlerine ilişkin yaptığı bir düzenleme ile piyasaya akaryakıt olarak arz edilen motorinin yerli tarım ürünlerinden üretilmiş dizel içeriğini 2014 yılı için en az %1, 2015 yılı için en az %2 ve 2016 yılı için ise en az %3 olarak belirlemiştir. Bu çalışma, belirlenen hedeflerin tarım sektörü ve kırsal kesim gelirleri açısından etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada çok-ülkeli, çok-ürünlü, ikili ticarete izin veren bir tarım ticaret modeli ve 2010 yılı için oluşturulmuş sosyal hesaplar matrisinden türetilen fiyat çarpanları kullanılmaktadır. Koşulan senaryolar biyo-dizel talebinin büyük ölçüde ayçiçeği ve daha küçük çapta soya arzının arttırılmasıyla karşılanması gerektiği yönünde bulgular ortaya koymaktadır. Bu arz artışının ise eş zamanlı olarak hem yurtiçinde prim verilerek hem de bu ürünlerin ham ve yağlarının ithalatında tarife indirimi yapılarak gerçekleştirildiği takdirde göreli olarak daha düşük maliyetle sağlanacağı gözlenmektedir. Kırsal kesimde faktör ve hanehalkı gelirleri ise prim artış ve tarife indirim oranlarına göre düzenlenebilecektir. Fakat sonuç itibarı ile Türkiye’nin fosil yakıt kullanımında biyo-dizel yerine biyo-etanol ikamesine yönelmesi daha rasyonel bir seçim olacaktır.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim ÇAĞATAY & Celal TAŞDOĞAN & Reyhan ÖZEŞ, 2013. "Türkiye’nin Yakıt Tüketiminde Biyo-dizel Kullanım Hedeflerinin Etki Analizi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 24(87), pages 37-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:24:y:2013:i:87:p:37-68
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.35111
    Note: [English Title] Impact Analysis of Turkey’s Targeted Bio-diesel Use in Fuel Consumption [English Abstract] The Energy Market Regulation Agency in Turkey has targeted the bio-diesel (produced by domestic agricultural products) content of fuel use at least to be 1% in 2014, 2% in 2015 and 3% in 2016. In this study, an impact analysis is carried out to reveal the impacts of the determined targets on agricultural sector and incomes in rural areas. A multi-country, multi-commodity agricultural bilateral trade model and price multipliers derived from a social accounting matrix of year 2010 are used to derive the impacts. The scenario findings suggest that the bio-diesel demand should be supplied by a rise mostly in sunlower and in soya. Further, according to empirical findings, if the supply increase is achieved simultaneously by providing price premium for domestic production and by liberalizing imports of both raw products and their oils, the policy cost would be relatively low. Factor and household incomes in the rural areas can be arranged by adjusting the rates of premium rise and tariff reduction. As a result of the analyses however, we may conclude that substituting fuel use in Turkey by bio-ethanol rather than bio-diesel would be a more rational choice. [English Keywords] Bio-diesel, Partial equilibrium, Agricultural bilateral-trade model, Social accounting matrix, Price multipliers.
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    Keywords

    Biyo-dizel; Kısmi denge; Tarım ikili-ticaret modeli; Sosyal hesaplar matrisi; Fiyat çarpanları.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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