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Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin NAIRU Tahmini

Author

Listed:
  • Özlem Yiğit

    (Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat))

  • Attila GÖKÇE

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye ekonomisi için Yapısal VAR yöntemi kullanılarak NAIRU tahmini elde etmektir. NAIRU, ölçülen işsizlik oranının uzun dönemde enflasyonla ilişkisiz kısmı olarak tanımlanmıştır. 1998:01-2011:01 dönemine ait üç aylık işsizlik oranı ve tüketici fiyatları endeksi verileri kullanılarak iki değişkenli bir VAR modeli tahmin edilmiştir. NAIRU şoku ve enflasyon şoku olmak üzere iki tip yapısal şok tanımlanan çalışmada, şoklar birbirlerinden enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri itibariyle ayrılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre 1989-2011 dönemleri arasında Türkiye’de yaşanan iktisadi ve sosyal dönüşüme paralel olarak NAIRU’nun giderek yükseldiği belirlenmiştir. Ek olarak iktisadi krizlerin yaşandığı 1989-2001 yılları arasındaki NAIRU’nun, nispeten daha istikrarlı büyüme oranlarının gözlendiği 2002-2008 dönemine göre daha değişken olduğu belirlenmiştir. 1989-2001 yılları arasında ortalama %8.4 olarak tahmin edilen NAIRU, 2002’den 2008 ikinci çeyreğe kadar olan dönemde ortalama % 9.6 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 üçüncü çeyrekten sonra ise NAIRU ortalama %12.50 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. 2011 ilk çeyrek tahmini ise %10.75’tir.

Suggested Citation

  • Özlem Yiğit & Attila GÖKÇE, 2012. "Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin NAIRU Tahmini," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 23(83), pages 69-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:23:y:2012:i:83:p:69-91
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.34098
    Note: [English Title] NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy [English Abstract] The purpose of this paper is to estimate NAIRU for the Turkish economy using the structural VAR method. NAIRU is defined as the part of the measured unemployment rate unrelated with inflation in the long run. The estimates are obtained by applying the bivariate VAR model to quarterly data on unemployment rate and the consumer price index for the period from 1989:01 to 2011:01. In this study, NAIRU shocks and inflation shocks are defined as two types of structural shocks and the shocks are separated from each other by their effects on inflation. According to the findings of the study, NAIRU is observed to be gradually rising in parallel to the economic and social transformation in Turkey between 1989 and 2011. In addition, NAIRU is observed as more volatile during economic crisis experienced in the period 1989-2001 compared to that of the period 2002-2008 in which the more stable growth rates were observed. NAIRU is estimated at an average of 8.4% between the years 1989 and 2001 and at an average of 9.6% from 2002 until the second quarter of 2008. NAIRU is estimated at the average 12.50% after the third quarter of 2008. An estimated rate for the first quarter of 2011 is 10.75%. [English Keywords] NAIRU, Unemployment, Unemployment Gap, Hysteresis, SVAR.
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    Keywords

    NAIRU; İşsizlik; İşsizlik Açığı; Histerezis; SVAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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