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Türkiye’nin Yılda Ortalama %6.5-%8 Büyüyebilmesinin Ön-Koşulları (25-Yıllık Senaryolar Ve Elde Edilen Sonuçların Yorumları)

Author

Listed:
  • Kemal ÇAKMAN

    (Gazi University)

  • Z. Mehmet BAŞARAN

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

2030 için beş hedef tanımlandı: (i) işsiz sayısının artmaması, (ii) tarımsektöründe emeğin ortalama-veriminin artması için tarımsal-nüfusun 21.5 milyondan 2030’da dek dört-kat düşmesi, (iii) tarım-dışı sektörde emek veriminin ve küresel rekabet-gücünün artması için yaratılan yeni istihdam başına düşen (alt-yapı ve beşeri yatırımlar dahil) yatırımın, gereken oranda ve hızda yükselmesi ve (iv) & (v) iki sektördeki istihdamın sektör nüfusuna oranının %28 ve %32’den (sırasıyla) %40 ve %45 civarına çıkması. Bu beş hedefe ulaşmak için, 25 yıl boyunca her yıl tarım-dışı sektörde yaratılması gereken yeni iş-olanağı ve ardından da yapılması gereken minimum yatırım miktarları [(I)t] elde edildi. Bu yapılırken 18 kolon veri türetildi. Türkiye için 2030-hedefleri tespit edilirken, bazı değişkenlerde İspanya’nın 2000 veya 2005 düzeyi; 2030 hedefi belirlenirken de İspanya’nın 1999-2007 performansının 2030’a projekte edilmesiyle elde edilen sonuç birer kıstas olarak kullanıldı. Böylece oluşturulan beş örnek senaryo çerçevesinde, yukarıda tanımlanmış 5 temel hedefe varılması için gerekli (I)t ve (I/GSYH)t dizileri türetildi. Neticede, tanımlanmış bu beş hedefe varabilmek için yatırım oranının %32-%36 arasına yükselmesi ve tasarruf-oranını şimdikinin iki misline çıkarması gerektiği; aksi takdirde, temel makro değişkenler bazında İspanya gibi bir AB ülkesi ile Türkiye arasında günümüzde var-olan farkların daha da artacağı ve ülkenin ‘yüzü Batı’ya-dönük’ sosyo-kültürel gelişim rotasında kalabilme olasılığının düşeceği sonucuna varıldı.

Suggested Citation

  • Kemal ÇAKMAN & Z. Mehmet BAŞARAN, 2011. "Türkiye’nin Yılda Ortalama %6.5-%8 Büyüyebilmesinin Ön-Koşulları (25-Yıllık Senaryolar Ve Elde Edilen Sonuçların Yorumları)," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 22(78), pages 1-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:22:y:2011:i:78:p:1-66
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.20031
    Note: [English Title] Preconditions That May Enable Turkey to Attain an Average Growth Rate of 6.5%-8.0% (Scenarios Encompassing the Next 25 Years and a Discussion of Results Obtained) [English Abstract] The minimum annual gross investments including all social-overhead (I)t and investment-ratios (I/GDP)t needed to fulfill the following 5 main targets were calculated for the next 25 years: (i) No new additions to the present number of unemployed. (ii) Agricultural population of 21.5 mln. should decline to about 5.2 mln so as to help narrow the gap between Turkey and EU countries in terms of average productivity of agricultural labor. (iii) (I/ΔL)t --where ΔLt is the annual increase in non-agricultural employment-- should rise at a sufficiently high rate so that Turkey may start catching-up with the EU countries in terms of APL in this sector too and may improve her competitiveness in global markets. (iv & v) Employment-ratios in both sectors should rise substantially from 28% and 32%, respectively to 40% and 45%. For this purpose, 14 columns of data were derived to estimate the annual increase in non-agricultural employment needed (ΔL)t so that “target (i)” may be fulfilled. Then the performance of Spain in terms of (I/ΔL)t increases in the 1999-2007 period was calculated and used to estimate the probable range of (I/ΔL)2030 for Spain, which figures were used to set two alternative (I/ΔL)2030 targets for Turkey. The minimum (It) and the (I/GDP)t necessary for the fulfillment of the aforementioned 5 targets for the 2006-2030 period and were thus derived. The results indicated that Turkey must double her present savings rate and increase her investment-rate to 32%-36% or otherwise is likely to face increasing gaps between herself and EU countries in fundamental macro variables such as productivity, per-capita incomes and risk setting on a route that would seriously reduce the probability that Turkey may continue with her “western oriented” sociocultural development. [English Keywords] Turkish economy, Scenarios and simulations for the next 25 years.
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    Keywords

    Türkiye ekonomisi; 25-yıllık simülasyonlar ve senaryolar.;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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