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Kamu Borçlanması Kamu Yatırımlarını Dışlıyor Mu?

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet DURKAYA

    (Giresun University)

  • Servet CEYLAN

    (Giresun University)

  • Oktay Orçun BEKEN

    (Giresun University)

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde kamu yatırımlarının finansmanı için kamu gelirleri çoğu zaman yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu nedenle, kamu yatırımlarının finansmanında vergi gelirlerine ilave olarak borçlanma seçeneği kullanılmaktadır. Oysa borç stokunun artması eşik değerden sonra kamu yatırımlarını azaltmaktadır. Özellikle yüksek borç stokunun bulunduğu gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, kaynaklar genellikle borç ana para ve faiz ödemelerine aktarılmaktadır. Kuşkusuz bu durum, kamu yatırımları gibi esnek harcama kalemlerinin dışlanması sonucunu doğurmaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için faiz ödemeleri ile kamu yatırımları arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiler incelenmiştir. 1980-2008 dönemi yıllık zaman serilerini içeren analizde, uzun dönem ilişkileri incelemek için Engle-Granger ve Johansen ko- entegrasyon testi, kısa dönem ilişkiler için hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, faiz ödemelerinden kamu yatırımlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensel bir ilişkinin olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca çalışmada, bu iki değişken arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu için faiz ödemelerinin kamu yatırımlarını dışladığı tespit edilmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet DURKAYA & Servet CEYLAN & Oktay Orçun BEKEN, 2010. "Kamu Borçlanması Kamu Yatırımlarını Dışlıyor Mu?," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 21(74), pages 39-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:21:y:2010:i:74:p:39-58
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10700
    Note: [English Title] DOES THE PUBLIC INDEBTMENT CROWD OUT THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT? [English Abstract] Public revenues have mostly remained inadequate for the financing of public investments in developing economies. Therefore, in addition to the use of tax revenues, the choice of getting into debt has also been considered to meet public investments. However, after threshold level, the expansion of debt stock decreases public investments. Revenues are used for debt, principal, and interest payments particularly in developing economies which experience excessive debt stock. This is definitely certain to led to the exclusion of elastic expenditure-component like public investments. The study deals with long and short-term relationships between public investment expenditures and debt interest payments. In the analysis in which are included annual time series data for the period of 1980-2008, Engle –Granger and Johansen co-integration test were employed for the determination of the long-term relationship and error correction model was used for the establishment of the short-term relationship. The results obtained show the existence of a bi-directional causality from interest payments to public investments. It was also found that interest payments crowded out public investments due to the existence of a negative relationship between the two variables. [English Keywords] Public Investments, Indebtedness, Debt-Overhang, Crowding Out, Cointegration
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