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GCC Petrodollar Surpluses and the US Current Account Imbalance

Author

Listed:
  • Shawkat HAMMOUDEH

    (Drexel University)

  • Ramazan SARI

    (METU)

  • Eisa ALESIA

    (IMF)

Abstract

Given the secrecy that wraps the flows of the GCC countries’ petrodollar surpluses to the United States and the pressures on these countries to spend and recycle more, this study attempts to uncover the direct and reverse causal relationships between the GCC financial accounts and the US current account deficit. It examines whether the GCC petrodollar surpluses are part of the global savings glut (an external factor) that causes the US current account deficit, or on the contrary this deficit is home-grown and the petrodollar savings glut hypothesis does not hold. It particularly focuses on the world’s important oil exporters to find out if the homegrown deficit hypothesis holds for the world’s largest oil consumer. The implications and policy recommendations for this significant source of global external imbalances are provided

Suggested Citation

  • Shawkat HAMMOUDEH & Ramazan SARI & Eisa ALESIA, 2009. "GCC Petrodollar Surpluses and the US Current Account Imbalance," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 20(73), pages 39-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:20:y:2009:i:73:p:39-54
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10695
    Note: [Turkish Title] GCC Petrodolar Fazlalığı Ve ABD Cari Açık Dengesizliği [Turkish Abstract] GCC (Körfez İşbirliği Konseyi) ülkelerinin petrodolar fazlasının ABD’ye akmasının ve bu ülkeler üzerinde söz konusu akışı sağlamaya yönelik baskının gizliliği varsayımı altında bu çalışma, GCC ülkelerinin finansal hesapları ile ABD cari açığı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkiyi ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. GCC ülkelerindeki sermaye hesabı fazlalığının, ABD’deki cari açığa sebep olması ve böylece söz konusu açığın uluslararası tasarruf fazlalığından kaynaklanıp kaynaklanmadığı, ya da açığın tamamen yerel sebeplerden kaynaklandığı ve böylece uluslararası tasarruf hipotezinin yanlış olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Çalışma ile, özelikle önemli petrol ihracatçısı ülkelere yoğunlaşarak, yerel kaynaklı cari açık iddiasının dünyanın en büyük petrol tüketicisi için doğru olup olmadığı araştırılmaktadır. Çeşitli politika önerileri de çalışmada yer almaktadır. [Turkish Keywords] Sermaye Hesabı; Finansal Hesap; Direkt ve Ters Nedensellik
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