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Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Yapısı Ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: 1968-2006

Author

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  • Şenay AÇIKGÖZ

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de vergi yapısı ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler vergi yükü, gayri safi sabit sermaye/GSYİH oranı ve yurtiçi tasarruflar/GSYİH oranı ile birlikte değerlendirilmiştir. Bu amaçla nedensellik analizi ve etki-tepki fonksiyonları kullanılmıştır. Nedensellik sınamalarına göre vergi yapısı ile büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. İlişkinin yönü büyümeden dolaysız vergi gelirlerinin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payı ile dolaylı vergi gelirlerinin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payına doğrudur. Dolaysız vergi gelirlerinin GSYİH’ya oranından (vergi yükü) büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Büyüme, aynı zamanda, hem gayri safi sabit sermaye/GSYİH oranı hem de yurtiçi tasarruflar/GSYiH oranının Granger nedenidir. Etki-tepki fonksiyonlarına göre, büyüme, ilk asamada dolaylı vergi gelirlerinin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payına aynı yönde, dolaysız vergi gelirlerinin toplam vergi gelirleri içindeki payına ise ters yönde tepki vermekte ve değiskenler ortalama 3- 4 dönem sonra birlikte hareket etmektedirler. İktisadi büyüme vergi yüküne de aynı yönde tepki vermekte ve iki değisken 4-5 dönem içinde birlikte hareket etmeye başlamaktadırlar.

Suggested Citation

  • Şenay AÇIKGÖZ, 2008. "Türkiye’de Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Yapısı Ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: 1968-2006," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 19(68), pages 91-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:19:y:2008:i:68:p:91-113
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10671
    Note: [English Title] TAX REVENUE, TAXATION MIX AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TURKEY: 1968-2006 [English Abstract] This paper examines the relationships between taxation mix and economic growth in the Turkish economy. Tax burden, gross fixed capital formation/GDP and gross domestic savings/GDP ratio were also taken into account in the study. Causality analysis and impulse-response functions were used in the analysis. According to results obtained through causality analysis, there is one-way casual relationship between economic growth and taxation mix which flows from economic growth to taxation mix. One-way casual relationship was found between direct tax revenues/GDP ratio (tax burden) to economic growth. Economic growth is Granger cause of both gross fixed capital formation/GDP and gross domestic savings/GDP ratio. Impulse-response functions indicate that economic growth responds to indirect tax revenues with positive direction whereas economic growth responds to direct tax revenues with negative direction in the first stage and then they move together after 3-4 periods on the average. Economic growth responds to tax burden with positive direction and they move together after 3-4 periods. [English Keywords] Tax Revenues, Taxation Mix, Economic Growth, Causality
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