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Dünya Fındık Piyasasının Analizi

Author

Listed:
  • Zeki BAYRAMOĞLU

    (Ankara University)

  • Erdemir GÜNDOĞMUŞ

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, dünya fındık piyasasında fiyat oluşumunu etkileyen faktörler ve Türkiye 'nin fiyat oluşumuna etkisini araştırmak amacı ile yapılmıştır. Bunun için dünya fındık piyasasında yer alan önemli fındık ithalatçısı ve ihracatçısı ülkelere ait fındık ithalat ve ihracat miktarları, her ülke para biriminin dolar karşısındaki pariteleri, VAR yöntemine göre analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veriler 1970-2004 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. VAR analizi sonucunda grenger nedensellik testi, varyans ayrışması ve etki-tepki fonksiyonu çıktıları elde edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre dünya fındık piyasasında fiyat oluşumu üzerinde etkili olan faktörler, ülkelerin kendi para birimlerinin dolar karşısındaki durumu, Türkiye fındık üretim miktarı ve Fiskobirlik fiyatıdır. Ayrıca Türkiye fındık üretim miktarının ve Fiskobirlik fiyatının dünya fındık fiyatları üzerinde etkili olması piyasalara müdahale açısından Türkiye için bir avantaj olarak görülmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeki BAYRAMOĞLU & Erdemir GÜNDOĞMUŞ, 2007. "Dünya Fındık Piyasasının Analizi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 18(65), pages 71-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:18:y:2007:i:65:p:71-89
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10644
    Note: [English Title] ANALYSIS OF WORLD HAZELNUT MARKET [English Abstract] The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting price fixation on world hazelnut market. Then, factors such as hazelnut import quantity, hazelnut export quantity and US $ parity of each country's currency were analyzed by VAR method. The data is consisting of 1970-2004 period. Granger's test, variance decomposition and effect-reaction functions were also done. According to the results; the factors affecting world hazelnut price fixation are the amount of Turkish hazelnut production, the price of Fiskobirlik and the US $ parity of each country's currency. The results also show that Turkey has had an advantage for controlling the world hazelnut market. [English Keywords] Hazelnut, Foreign Trade, VAR model, Granger Causality Test, Turkey
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