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Daraltıcı Devalüasyon Hipotezi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Author

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  • A. Nazif ÇATIK

    (Ege University)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de daraltıcı devalüasyon hipotezinin geçerliliği Bernanke (1986) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal VAR modeli yardımı ile ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan model geleneksel görüşün aksine devalüasyonun daraltıcı etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Reel devalüasyonlar Türkiye'de yüksek enflasyona ve ekonomik daralmaya neden olmaktadır. Bu nedenle incelenen dönemde reel döviz kurunun sürekli devalüe edilerek ihracat potansiyelinin arttırılmasına dayalı bir dış ticaret politikasının etkin olmayabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Varyans ayrıştırma ve etki tepki fonksiyonları döviz kurundan fiyatlara güçlü bir geçiş etkisinin olduğunu ima etmektedir. Söz konusu bulgu döviz kurunun rekabetçi bir düzeyde tutulmasının oldukça riskli olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Sonuç olarak, sürekli reel devalüasyon uygun para ve maliye politikaları ile desteklenmedikçe başarılı olmayacaktır.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Nazif ÇATIK, 2007. "Daraltıcı Devalüasyon Hipotezi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 18(62), pages 61-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:18:y:2007:i:62:p:61-77
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10626
    Note: [English Title] CONTRACTIONARY DEVALUATION HYPOTHESIS: AN APPLICATION TO TURKEY [English Abstract] In this paper we have empirically investigated the validity of the contractionary devaluation hypothesis in Turkey by using tlıe Structural VAR methodology developed by Bernanke (1986). The model used in this study shows that contrary to conventional wisdom, real depreciations have contractionary effects on output. Persistent devaluations have led to high inflation and economic contraction in Turkey. For that reason we have reached the conclusion that foreign trade policy based on the persistent devaluation of real exchange rate will not be efficient to increase export potential of Turkey. Evidences obtained from variance decompositions and impulse response functions imply that tfıere is a very strong pass-through from real exchange rate to inflation. This finding also point out the substantial risks to keep the exchange rate at a competitive level. As a result permanent real devaluation may not be successful unless it is accompanied by appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. [English Keywords] Contractionary Devaluation, Growth, Stuctural VAR.
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    Keywords

    Daraltıcı Devalüasyon; Büyüme; Yapısal VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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