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The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

Author

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  • Mahdiyeh Entezarkheir

    (P.h.D Candidate for Economics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada)

Abstract

Decreasing inflation uncertainty, as the major source of welfare costs, requires finding the driving factors of this variable. Counting inflation as one of the driving factors of inflation uncertainty has created some concern due to the ambiguity over the causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty. This ambiguity has inspired several studies in the literature, which mostly focuses on testing two separate hypotheses to solve this ambiguity. These hypotheses are Friedman-Ball hypothesis, which assumes higher inflation leads to higher inflation uncertainty, and Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis, which claims the reverse. After testing for Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses in Iranian economy, with applying TGARCH and EGARCH models, this study reveals that EGARCH model supports the asymmetry in error terms distribution of Iranian data and accepts both hypotheses. However, results based on TGARCH approach do not support the asymmetry in error terms distribution, which implies TGARCH model is not reliable for Iranian data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdiyeh Entezarkheir, 2006. "The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Mendy, David & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "On the Inflation-Uncertainty Hypothesis in The Gambia: A Multi-Sample View on Causality Linkages," MPRA Paper 86743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2022. "Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa," Working Papers 202254, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.

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