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Evidencia de ciclo político presupuestal en el Estado de México

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Mejía Reyes.

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México.)

  • Marlen Rocío Reyes Hernández.

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

  • Blanca I. Melquiades Ramírez.

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

Abstract

En este documento se determina la presencia de ciclos políticos presupuestales (CPP) asociados a las elecciones de gobernador del Estado de México; México, durante el periodo 1980-2011. Para ello, se analizan las características de los datos de gasto público en busca de evidencia preliminar. Posteriormente, se estiman modelos autorregresivos extendidos que incorporan variables (dicótomas) electorales y se controlan mediante los efectos del ciclo económico. Los resultados muestran la presencia de CPP en el gasto administrativo y la deuda pública, pero sólo evidencia episódica de conductas oportunistas en los rubros de gasto total (elección de 1993) y transferencias (elecciones de 1987 y 1999).

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Mejía Reyes. & Marlen Rocío Reyes Hernández. & Blanca I. Melquiades Ramírez., 2016. "Evidencia de ciclo político presupuestal en el Estado de México," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 45(2), pages 207-234, Julio-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:ety:journl:v:45:y:2016:i:2:p:207-234
    DOI: 10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/452016/Mejia
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasto público; deuda pública; ciclo político presupuestal; México.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other

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